WTI Surges: What’s Driving Prices?

WTI CRUDE

84.21

$/bbl

▲ +0.98 (+1.18%)

BRENT CRUDE

90.91

$/bbl

▲ +1.69 (+1.89%)

GASOLINE

3.23

$/gal

▼ -0.16 (-4.78%)

HEATING OIL

4.03

$/gal

▼ -0.09 (-2.28%)

OIL SERVICES ETF

384.36

$/sh

▲ +9.18 (+2.45%)

LNG

262.48

$/sh

▼ -2.47 (-0.93%)

URANIUM ETF

40.13

$/sh

▲ +1.46 (+3.78%)

LITHIUM ETF

69.18

$/sh

▲ +2.26 (+3.38%)

Oil and Energy Market Context - Macro Drivers

Key macro instruments that drive oil price movements - dollar, yields, risk appetite

DXY

US Dollar Index

101.18 pts

▲ 0.19 (+0.19%)

headwind for oil

Oil priced in USD — rising dollar pressures oil

WTI

WTI Crude Oil

84.21 $/bbl

▲ 0.98 (+1.18%)

positive for oil

US benchmark crude price

BRENT

Brent Crude

90.91 $/bbl

▲ 1.69 (+1.89%)

positive for oil

Global benchmark crude price

NAT GAS

Natural Gas

2.86 $/MMBtu

▲ 0.00 (+0.14%)

positive for oil

Henry Hub natural gas price

XLE

Energy Sector ETF

58.30 $/sh

▲ 0.37 (+0.63%)

positive for oil

Energy sector equity benchmark

SPX

S&P 500

7,506.51 pts

▲ 63.23 (+0.85%)

positive for oil

Broad risk appetite indicator

▲ Rising DXY or yields typically pressure oil prices | ▲ Falling yields or geopolitical risk support energy markets | Live data - fetched at send time

Market Commentary

Houthi Threats Ignite New Oil Price Surge

The escalating threats from the Houthis are igniting a significant surge in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $91 as geopolitical tensions mount in the Middle East. This development underscores the fragility of supply chains in a region that is already a critical artery for global oil transport. The rerouting of tankers in response to these threats not only increases shipping costs but also raises the specter of potential supply disruptions, which can have a cascading effect on global oil markets. Investors are acutely aware that any sustained conflict in this area could lead to tighter supply, especially given the already precarious balance between demand recovery and OPEC+ production strategies. The risk premium associated with Middle Eastern oil is likely to rise, as market participants begin to price in the possibility of prolonged instability. Additionally, this situation could compel OPEC+ to reassess its production quotas, particularly if prices continue to climb, as they may seek to stabilize the market or capitalize on higher revenue. The broader macroeconomic implications are significant; higher oil prices could stoke inflationary pressures worldwide, impacting consumer spending and economic growth. Furthermore, the situation may accelerate the shift towards alternative energy sources as nations seek to reduce their dependence on oil from volatile regions. Overall, the Houthi threats serve as a stark reminder of the geopolitical risks that continue to loom over the energy landscape, reinforcing the notion that oil prices are as much a function of global stability as they are of supply and demand fundamentals.

Oil is on Track to Settle Above $90 a Barrel for the First Time Since Early June

Settling above $90 a barrel for the first time since early June signals a significant turning point for oil markets, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The sustained U.S. military actions against Iran not only heighten the risk of supply disruptions but also amplify fears of broader regional instability, which historically leads to price spikes. As the market grapples with these uncertainties, the potential for a supply squeeze becomes more pronounced, particularly given that Iran's oil exports have already been severely curtailed by sanctions. This price level also reflects a tightening global supply-demand balance, as OPEC+ continues to exercise discipline in production levels, further supporting higher prices. Additionally, with global economic recovery gaining momentum, demand for oil is expected to increase, particularly in emerging markets, which will add upward pressure on prices. The psychological barrier of $90 could also trigger speculative trading, as investors anticipate further price increases, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Furthermore, if tensions escalate or if additional sanctions are imposed, we could see prices breach even higher levels, potentially testing the $100 mark. In this context, energy investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments, as they will be pivotal in shaping the trajectory of oil prices in the coming weeks. Overall, the current landscape suggests that oil prices may remain elevated, reflecting both immediate geopolitical risks and the underlying dynamics of supply and demand in a recovering global economy.

Can Brent Crude Rally to $120? Energy ETFs Likely to Win

Brent crude's potential rally to $120 is not just a speculative forecast; it reflects the underlying dynamics of supply constraints and geopolitical tensions that continue to shape the oil market. Shipping disruptions, particularly in key transit routes, exacerbate the already precarious supply situation, creating upward pressure on prices. Goldman Sachs’ outlook underscores a growing consensus that the combination of OPEC+ production discipline and recovering global demand, particularly from China, could push prices significantly higher. As these factors converge, energy ETFs are poised to benefit, attracting investors looking to capitalize on the anticipated price surge. The implications extend beyond mere price levels; sustained high oil prices could lead to inflationary pressures across the economy, impacting everything from transportation costs to consumer goods. Furthermore, a rally to $120 would likely trigger a reevaluation of production strategies among U.S. shale producers, who may ramp up output to capitalize on favorable margins. This could introduce a new layer of volatility, as increased supply from the U.S. could clash with OPEC+ efforts to maintain price stability. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape, particularly tensions in the Middle East and sanctions on Russia, will remain critical in determining how high prices can go. Investors should remain vigilant, as the interplay of these factors will not only shape the trajectory of oil prices but also influence broader market sentiment in the energy sector. As we approach the end of the year, the potential for a $120 Brent could redefine investment strategies and risk assessments across the energy landscape.

Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) Hits New 52-Week High

The recent surge of the Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) to a new 52-week high signals a robust bullish sentiment in the refining sector, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices. This uptick in CRAK reflects not only the immediate profitability of refiners benefiting from higher margins but also underscores a broader market expectation that oil prices will remain elevated in the near term. As geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in key oil-producing regions, continue to loom, refiners are positioned to capitalize on the volatility, translating higher crude costs into increased margins for gasoline and other refined products. Furthermore, the current dynamics suggest that the supply-demand balance is tightening, with refiners likely to face challenges in sourcing crude at competitive prices while meeting robust demand for refined products. This scenario is compounded by OPEC's strategic production cuts aimed at stabilizing prices, which could further elevate refining margins if crude prices remain high. Investors should also consider the implications of potential disruptions in supply chains, which could exacerbate price fluctuations and create opportunities for refiners to leverage their positions. As the global economy continues to recover post-pandemic, demand for refined products is expected to rise, reinforcing the attractiveness of the refining sector. The combination of these factors suggests that the upward momentum in CRAK is not merely a short-term blip but indicative of a longer-term trend in the energy markets, where refiners could see sustained profitability amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties. In this environment, investors should remain vigilant, as the interplay between crude prices, refining margins, and geopolitical developments will be critical in shaping the future landscape of the oil market.

Oil Prices Climb to Highest Level Seen in Over a Month

The recent surge in oil prices, with Brent futures reaching over $91 per barrel and WTI over $84, underscores the significant impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran, on global energy markets. This escalation not only reflects immediate supply concerns but also signals a broader anxiety among investors regarding the stability of Middle Eastern oil supplies, which are critical to meeting global demand. As tensions persist, the risk premium associated with oil prices is likely to remain elevated, potentially pushing prices even higher as traders factor in the possibility of supply disruptions. Furthermore, this upward trajectory may compel OPEC+ to reassess its production strategies, especially if prices continue to rise, as the cartel aims to balance market stability with revenue maximization. The implications for refining margins are also noteworthy; higher crude prices could squeeze margins unless refined product prices rise in tandem, which could lead to increased costs for consumers and businesses alike. Additionally, this price movement may influence the broader macroeconomic landscape, as sustained high oil prices can exacerbate inflationary pressures and impact consumer spending. Investors should also keep an eye on the response from major economies, particularly the U.S., where strategic petroleum reserves could be tapped to mitigate price spikes. Overall, the current market dynamics suggest a precarious balance between supply and demand, with geopolitical uncertainties likely to keep oil prices volatile in the near term. As the situation evolves, stakeholders across the energy spectrum must remain vigilant, as the ramifications of these price movements will resonate throughout the global economy.

Treasury Yields Hit Two-Month High as Oil Sparks Inflation Risk

The recent surge in crude oil prices is a critical factor driving Treasury yields to their highest levels in two months, signaling a renewed inflation risk that could have profound implications for the energy market. As oil prices climb, they not only elevate the cost of transportation and manufacturing but also contribute to broader inflationary pressures that may compel the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive monetary policy stance. This potential tightening of monetary policy could dampen economic growth, leading to decreased demand for oil in the medium term. However, the immediate impact of rising oil prices is likely to be bullish, as higher costs typically translate into increased revenues for oil producers, potentially supporting prices in the short run. Additionally, the market's sensitivity to inflation data means that any further increases in oil prices could exacerbate volatility in both the equity and bond markets, creating a feedback loop that affects investor sentiment. Geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and OPEC's production decisions will also play pivotal roles in shaping the trajectory of oil prices amidst these inflationary concerns. If the Fed signals a willingness to raise interest rates in response to sustained inflation, it could lead to a stronger dollar, which historically exerts downward pressure on oil prices. However, if supply constraints persist, the balance may tilt in favor of higher prices despite the macroeconomic headwinds. Investors must navigate this complex landscape, weighing the immediate bullish sentiment from rising oil prices against the potential for longer-term demand destruction driven by higher interest rates. Ultimately, the interplay between oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy will be critical in determining the future direction of energy markets.

Trump Vows Tehran Will 'Pay' as U.S. Strikes Iran for 10th Consecutive Night

The ongoing U.S. military strikes against Iran, now entering their tenth consecutive night, are poised to have significant ramifications for oil prices and the broader energy market. With Brent crude already above $91 per barrel and gasoline prices exceeding $4 a gallon, the heightened geopolitical tensions are exacerbating supply concerns at a time when global demand is still recovering from pandemic-induced disruptions. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' claims of retaliatory actions only add to the uncertainty, as any escalation could threaten vital shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil passes. Investors are acutely aware that prolonged conflict could lead to a tightening of supply, particularly if Iran retaliates against U.S. interests or allies in the region, further straining an already delicate balance in oil markets. Furthermore, OPEC's ability to manage production levels in response to these developments will be tested, as member nations weigh the risks of maintaining output against the potential for soaring prices driven by geopolitical instability. The current situation underscores the fragility of the energy landscape, where even minor disruptions can lead to significant price volatility. As the situation evolves, market participants will need to closely monitor not only the immediate impacts on oil supply but also the broader implications for energy security and the potential for a shift in U.S. energy policy. In this context, the interplay between military actions and oil market dynamics will be critical in shaping price trajectories in the coming weeks. The stakes are high, and investors must remain vigilant as the potential for further escalation looms large.

TAG OIL | TSXV: TAO | OTCQB: TAOIF

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Interesting Company News Today

Sintana Energy: Latin-America Updates

(TSX-V:SEI, AIM:SEI, OTCQX:SEUSF) Sintana Energy, Inc. announced that ANCAP, the Uruguayan state-owned energy company and regulator, has agreed to a suspension of the initial exploration subperiod of the AREA OFF-1 block, offshore Uruguay, for 1 year, extending the first exploration subperiod to expire on 23 August 2027. The suspension was requested by Chevron Mexico Finance LLC, Sucursal Uruguay, due to the time taken for environmental authorisation of the AREA OFF-1 3D seismic acquisition campaign. An initial season of seismic acquisition was completed prior to the end of April 2026, with a second season scheduled to commence in Q4 2026. On 14 February 2025, Challenger Energy Group plc, a member of the Sintana group of companies, submitted an expression of interest for an offshore hydrocarbon exploration permit in the North Argentine Basin (CAN - 200). On 15 July 2026, Decree 590/2026 was published, instructing the National Secretariat of Energy to call for an International Public Tender based on Challenger Energy's expression of interest. The company projects that Challenger will proceed to participate in this process, in compliance with Argentine law and authorities.

Pharos Energy: Publication and Posting of Scheme Document

(LSE:PHAR) Pharos Energy plc is the subject of a recommended cash acquisition by Ratio Petroleum Energy LP, with an offer price of up to 28 pence per Pharos Share. The acquisition will be effected by means of a Court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement under Part 26 of the Companies Act 2006. The Scheme Document was published and posted to shareholders on 21 July 2026, and the Court Meeting and General Meeting are scheduled for 17 August 2026 at the offices of Ashurst Perkins Coie UK LLP, London. The Scheme requires the approval of a majority in number representing 75 per cent. or more in value of votes cast by Scheme Shareholders at the Court Meeting, and the passing of the Resolution by the requisite majority at the General Meeting. The Scheme is also subject to the satisfaction or waiver of conditions, including Regulatory Conditions in Egypt and Vietnam. The Scheme is currently expected to become Effective in H1 2027. If the Scheme becomes Effective, applications will be made to cancel the admission to trading in Pharos Shares on the Main Market and to re-register Pharos as a private limited company.

Capricorn Energy: Publication and Posting of Scheme Document

(TSX:CNE) Capricorn Energy plc is the subject of a recommended cash acquisition by Genel Energy No.9 Limited, a company indirectly owned by Genel Energy plc, for US$4.74 in cash for each Capricorn Share held. The Acquisition Value consists of US$3.75 in cash (the "Acquisition Price") and a special dividend of US$0.99, which is intended and expected to be declared prior to the Effective Date. The Court Meeting and General Meeting to approve the Scheme are scheduled for 18 August 2026 at the offices of Ashurst Perkins Coie UK LLP, London Fruit & Wool Exchange, 1 Duval Square, London E1 6PW, with the Court Meeting at 12.00 p.m. and the General Meeting at 12.15 p.m. Scheme Shareholders must submit Forms of Proxy by no later than 12.00 p.m. on 14 August 2026 for the Court Meeting and 12.15 p.m. on 14 August 2026 for the General Meeting. The Scheme is currently expected to become Effective during the second half of 2026, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the Conditions set out in the Scheme Document and the sanction of the Scheme by the Court. Prior to the Scheme becoming Effective, applications will be made to the London Stock Exchange and the Financial Conduct Authority to cancel the admission of Capricorn Shares to trading and to the Official List, with the last day of dealings expected to be the Business Day immediately prior to the Effective Date. The Capricorn Directors unanimously recommend that all Scheme Shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme at the Court Meeting and that all Capricorn Shareholders vote in favour of the resolution at the General Meeting.

Sky Quarry Moves its Foreland Refinery near Ely, Nevada into Production

(NASDAQ: SKYQ) Sky Quarry Inc. has moved its Foreland Refinery near Ely, Nevada into its production phase, with approximately 10,000 barrels of crude and in-process inventory on-site and more than 100,000 barrels of total storage capacity. The company describes Foreland as the only refinery in Nevada, configured to produce diesel, vacuum gas oil (VGO), naphtha, and asphalt for western U.S. markets, in a state that imports more than 90% of its transportation fuels. Sky Quarry has launched an initiative to catalyze new drilling in Nevada's Railroad Valley, with a 2025 U.S. Geological Survey assessment estimating Nevada holds approximately 1.4 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil beneath federal lands. The company appointed Ray Hansen, a 35-year refining veteran formerly of HF Sinclair, CITGO, and Chevron, as President of its wholly owned subsidiary Foreland Refining Corporation. The company expects the production phase to be judged on operational performance, cash-generating capability, and its strategic position within the Western fuel market. Management targets ramping production and preparing PR Spring for its next stage of development. At its peak, Railroad Valley wells produced roughly 5,000 barrels per day, and the company believes more wells with that kind of productivity are still possible.

American Battery Materials Announces Anticipated Uplisting to the NYSE American Stock Exchange

(OTC:BLTH) American Battery Materials Inc. announced that its shares of common stock and warrants are expected to be approved for listing on the NYSE American LLC stock exchange. The Company expects that its common stock will begin trading on the NYSE American under the symbol “BLTH” and its warrants under the symbol “BLTH WS” at the opening of trading on or about July 24, 2026, subject to final authorization of the Company’s listing application and continued compliance with the exchange rules. The Company expects its shares of common stock will continue to be quoted on the OTC Markets’ OTCID Market until the close of the market on or about July 23, 2026. Upon effectiveness of the Company’s Registration Statement and listing on the NYSE American, quotation of the common stock on the OTCID will terminate. Stockholders of the Company do not need to take any action prior to the listing of the Company’s shares on the NYSE American. American Battery Materials, Inc. (OTC: BLTH) is a U.S.-based environmentally responsible critical minerals extraction company focused on direct lithium extraction (DLE), as well as production of other minerals for refining, processing and distribution. The company projects that its listing on the NYSE American is subject to final authorization and continued compliance with the exchange rules.

OBSIDIAN ENERGY | TSX: OBE

• Strategic Belly River acquisition consolidates Obsidian as the largest Belly River producer.

• ~$100M capital program increase targeting 15% production growth in 2027.

• Light and heavy oil assets across Peace River, Willesden Green and Viking.

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Zenith Energy: Financing in Norway

(LSE: ZEN; OSE: ZENA) Zenith Energy Ltd. has completed a private placement of common shares with institutional investors in Norway, raising an aggregate total amount of approximately £2,116,000 (equivalent to approx. NOK 27,500,000 or US$2,848,000) and issuing a total of 50,000,000 new common shares. The financing was completed at a subscription price of NOK 0.55 per new common share, representing a discount of approximately 0.36 per cent to the closing price of the company's common shares on Euronext Growth Oslo on July 20, 2026. Following admission, the company will have 764,756,457 common shares in issue, each carrying one vote. In connection with the financing, the company has issued 50,000,000 share purchase warrants on a one-for-one basis, with each warrant entitling the holder to subscribe for one common share at an exercise price of NOK 0.675 (equivalent to approximately £0.0519), with a duration of two years from the date of issue. The company plans to use the funds to provide finance for due diligence and construction of a new biogas project, additional funding for legal expenses in connection with international arbitration proceedings, advance the continued development of its solar energy portfolio, and for general working capital purposes. The company's solar portfolio is approaching a 200 MWp development pipeline, and it commenced construction of its first solar energy production facility in July 2026. The company is the largest shareholder in Reveille Resources Plc, a recently London-listed uranium exploration company.

Ecopetrol Resumes Tender Offer in Brazil to Complete the Acquisition of a Controlling Equity Stake in Brava Energia

(NYSE: EC) Ecopetrol S.A. announced that its Brazilian subsidiary, Ecopetrol Investimentos do Brasil LTDA, published the terms and conditions of the Voluntary Tender Offer (OPAV) for the acquisition of 116,110,717 common shares of Brava Energia S.A., representing approximately 25% of its share capital. The OPAV is expected to remain open until August 5, 2026, when the auction would take place. Ecopetrol is the largest company in Colombia, with more than 19,000 employees, and is responsible for more than 60% of the hydrocarbon production in Colombia. The company acquired 51.4% of ISA's shares, expanding its participation in energy transmission, real-time systems management (XM), and the Barranquilla - Cartagena coastal highway concession. Internationally, Ecopetrol has Drilling and Exploration operations in the United States (Permian basin and the Gulf of Mexico), Brazil, and Mexico, and, through ISA and its subsidiaries, holds leading positions in the power transmission business in Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Bolivia. The transaction remains subject to the fulfillment of applicable regulatory requirements and certain specific conditions precedent. The company expects to disclose the results of the OPAV together with any other material developments related to the transaction.

Omega Oil Gas Prepares for Largest Drilling Campaign to Date at Canyon-3 Well

(ASX:OMA) Omega Oil & Gas has confirmed that contractor Helmerich & Payne is mobilising a high-performance rig to the Canyon-3 well on the eastern flank of the Taroom Trough in onshore Queensland to kick off exploration for the new field season. Two well pads have been constructed in PCA 342 (Omega 100% owner and operator), and construction of a third pad has commenced in the southern portion of ATP 2081 (Omega 45%, Tri-Star 30% and Beach Energy (ASX: BPT) 25%). The Canyon-3 campaign is Omega’s largest drilling program to date and will evaluate five stacked tight-sand reservoir intervals through four vertical wells (each taking up to 30 days to complete) and up to two horizontal wells (each to 2,000 metres depth), including fracture stimulation and flow testing. The vertical wells are designed to guide the selection of the highest-quality intervals for horizontal drilling, hydraulic stimulation, and extended production testing. Omega expects the well results to support resource growth within the Canyon PCA area and provide the foundation for a maiden contingent resource booking within ATP 2081. The company describes the campaign as representing the next phase in evaluating what could be a large-scale onshore oil and gas opportunity of international significance. Omega states that the program is fully funded and that they look forward to delivering a steady flow of results as the program progresses.

Lycos Energy Inc. Announces Strategic Acquisition of Sparky Waterflood Assets, $30.0 Million Equity Financing, Expanded Credit Facility, Operations Update and Increased 2026 Guidance

(TSXV: LCX) Lycos Energy Inc. announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire high netback assets under waterflood targeting the Sparky formation in the Greater Provost area of Alberta for cash consideration of $70.0 million, prior to closing adjustments, with an effective date of June 1, 2026. The acquisition will be funded through a $30.0 million bought deal equity financing and an expanded $75.0 million credit facility, with closing expected on August 6, 2026. Lycos is increasing its previously announced exit 2026 production guidance from 2,500 – 3,000 boe/d to 3,000 – 3,500 boe/d, and its 2026 capital expenditure budget from $35 – 40 million to $50 – 55 million. The acquired assets add approximately 1,000 boe/d of base production supported by proven waterflood operations, with an operating netback of approximately $45/boe (US $70 WTI) and proved plus probable reserves of 4.1 MMboe. After giving effect to the acquisition, the company now expects exit 2026 production of 4,000 – 4,500 boe/d and forecasts Net Debt to Annualized Adjusted Funds Flow to be less than 1.0x at closing, exiting the year at approximately 0.7x. The company will have 128,892,212 Common Shares outstanding after the equity financing, excluding the exercise of the over-allotment, and 131,852,762 Common Shares outstanding assuming the exercise of the over-allotment in full.

Eagle Nuclear Energy Provides Second Quarter 2026 Corporate Update

(NASDAQ: NUCL) Eagle Nuclear Energy Corp. announced a corporate update for the second quarter ending May 31, 2026, highlighting the advancement of its Aurora Uranium Project and proprietary Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology platform. The company reported a cash balance of $28.1 million and no outstanding interest-bearing debt as of May 31, 2026. Eagle owns the largest conventional, measured and indicated uranium deposit in the United States, located in southeastern Oregon, including the Aurora deposit with 32.75Mlbs Indicated and 4.98Mlbs Inferred (SK-1300 TRS) of near-surface uranium resource. In April 2026, Eagle engaged Harris Exploration Drilling & Associates Inc. for the Aurora drill program and filed permit applications with the Bureau of Land Management and Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. In June 2026, the company engaged Tensor Medium Corporation to support its SMR program with AI-enabled reactor modeling and simulation capabilities. The company projects completion of a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for Aurora in late-2027 and ongoing environmental baseline studies to support permitting and mine design optimization. Additional partnerships were announced in July 2026 with Yukuskon Professional Services, LLC, BBA USA Inc., and SLR International Corporation to execute the Aurora drill program and progress towards the expected PFS.

SYNTHOLENE ENERGY | TSXV: ESAF | OTC: SYNTF | FSE: 3DD0

• Iceland demonstration facility completed six months ahead of schedule with operations now underway.

• Syntholene's Thermal Hybrid Production System targets 70% lower cost than competing synthetic fuel technology.

• Carbon-negative eSAF engineered to pure molecular kerosene, drop-in compatible with existing engines, pipelines and tankers.

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