Brent Over $100: Are Supply Cuts Coming?

WTI CRUDE

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BRENT CRUDE

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Oil and Energy Market Context - Macro Drivers

Key macro instruments that drive oil price movements - dollar, yields, risk appetite

DXY

US Dollar Index

101.45 pts

▲ 0.31 (+0.30%)

headwind for oil

Oil priced in USD — rising dollar pressures oil

WTI

WTI Crude Oil

92.13 $/bbl

▲ 5.30 (+6.10%)

positive for oil

US benchmark crude price

BRENT

Brent Crude

100.71 $/bbl

▲ 6.64 (+7.06%)

positive for oil

Global benchmark crude price

NAT GAS

Natural Gas

2.92 $/MMBtu

▼ 0.01 (-0.21%)

negative for oil

Henry Hub natural gas price

XLE

Energy Sector ETF

59.67 $/sh

▲ 0.47 (+0.80%)

positive for oil

Energy sector equity benchmark

SPX

S&P 500

7,392.18 pts

▼ 106.78 (-1.42%)

negative for oil

Broad risk appetite indicator

▲ Rising DXY or yields typically pressure oil prices | ▲ Falling yields or geopolitical risk support energy markets | Live data - fetched at send time

Market Commentary

Oil Passes $100 a Barrel Again: Why It's More Serious This Time

The resurgence of Brent crude above $100 a barrel signals a critical juncture for the oil market, driven primarily by escalating tensions in the Middle East. This spike is not merely a repeat of past price surges; it reflects a more precarious geopolitical landscape that could have lasting implications for global supply chains and energy security. The current conflict, particularly involving Iran, has the potential to disrupt key oil flows, especially given the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world's oil transits. Investors must recognize that this price level is underpinned by a combination of supply constraints and heightened risk premiums, as market participants price in the potential for further escalations that could lead to actual supply disruptions. Additionally, OPEC's ability to manage output in response to these developments will be tested, as member states weigh the balance between maximizing revenues and maintaining market stability. The broader macroeconomic implications are equally significant; sustained high oil prices could exacerbate inflationary pressures globally, complicating monetary policy for central banks already grappling with rising interest rates. Furthermore, the refining sector may face challenges as margins tighten, particularly if crude prices remain elevated while product prices lag. As energy markets adjust to this new reality, the interplay between geopolitical risk and supply-demand fundamentals will be crucial in determining whether this price surge is a temporary spike or the beginning of a sustained upward trend. Investors should brace for volatility as the situation unfolds, with the potential for further price increases if tensions escalate or if OPEC+ decides to curtail production in response to the changing dynamics.

Ukraine’s Drone War is Choking Kazakhstan’s Oil Exports

Kazakhstan's oil exports are facing significant headwinds due to the ongoing drone warfare in Ukraine, which is severely constraining its ability to capitalize on the geopolitical isolation of Russia. While Kazakhstan's crude remains unsanctioned and European refiners are actively seeking alternatives to Russian oil, the country's export capabilities are being undermined by security threats and operational challenges. This situation not only limits Kazakhstan's potential to increase its market share in Europe but also exacerbates the already tight supply dynamics in the global oil market. With attacks on export infrastructure and disruptions within Russia impacting logistics and transport routes, the risk of supply shortages is heightened, which could lead to upward pressure on oil prices. Furthermore, Kazakhstan's operational failures at its largest fields indicate that production stability is far from guaranteed, further complicating the supply landscape. As a result, the anticipated influx of Kazakh oil into European markets may not materialize, leaving refiners to scramble for alternatives, which could drive prices higher in the short term. The broader implications of this scenario extend beyond just Kazakhstan; it highlights the fragility of supply chains in the current geopolitical climate and the interconnectedness of regional conflicts with global energy markets. Investors should closely monitor these developments, as any escalation in the conflict or further disruptions could lead to significant volatility in oil prices. Ultimately, Kazakhstan's predicament serves as a stark reminder that even countries positioned to benefit from geopolitical shifts can find themselves ensnared in a web of risk, complicating the overall outlook for oil supply and pricing.

Equity Markets Fall as Brent Crosses $100

Brent crossing the $100 mark signals a critical juncture for oil prices, indicating heightened geopolitical tensions and supply constraints that are reverberating through the global energy landscape. This surge in crude prices typically reflects a tightening supply-demand balance, exacerbated by ongoing production cuts from OPEC+ and persistent disruptions in key oil-producing regions. As energy costs rise, the implications for inflation become pronounced, potentially leading to increased pressure on central banks to adjust monetary policy, which can further impact equity markets. The decline in major tech stocks like Alphabet and Tesla amidst rising oil prices underscores the interconnectedness of energy costs and broader economic sentiment; higher energy prices can erode consumer spending power and dampen growth prospects for sectors reliant on stable energy costs. Investors are likely to recalibrate their expectations, weighing the potential for reduced economic growth against the backdrop of elevated energy prices. Additionally, the psychological barrier of $100 per barrel may trigger further volatility, as traders react to the potential for sustained high prices and their impact on global economic stability. The refining sector may also face challenges, as margins could be squeezed if crude prices remain elevated while product prices do not keep pace. Overall, this environment necessitates a careful reassessment of energy portfolios, as the ramifications of high oil prices extend beyond the commodity itself, influencing everything from inflationary pressures to the viability of growth in the tech sector. As we move forward, the market will closely monitor geopolitical developments and OPEC's production strategies, both of which will be pivotal in determining the trajectory of oil prices and their ripple effects across the economy.

Hybrid Hydropower Could Unlock Europe’s Next Renewable Energy Boom

The emergence of hybrid hydropower projects in Europe signals a transformative shift in the renewable energy landscape, with significant implications for oil markets and energy prices. As energy companies increasingly seek to stabilize and maximize output from existing hydropower sites by integrating wind and solar, the potential addition of 25 GW of renewable capacity could enhance energy security and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, including oil. This transition not only aligns with Europe's ambitious decarbonization goals but also indicates a potential decrease in oil demand as renewables gain traction. With hybrid systems providing a more reliable energy source, the volatility often associated with oil prices may be mitigated, especially in regions heavily dependent on oil for power generation. Furthermore, as Europe accelerates its shift towards renewables, the geopolitical dynamics surrounding oil supply could shift, potentially leading to reduced influence of oil-exporting nations in European energy policy. This could create a more favorable environment for investments in renewables, further driving down costs and enhancing competitiveness against oil. In the short term, oil prices may face downward pressure as market participants adjust to a landscape where renewables are increasingly prioritized. However, the transition will not be instantaneous; oil will remain a critical component of the energy mix for the foreseeable future, particularly in sectors where alternatives are less viable. Overall, the development of hybrid hydropower represents not just an opportunity for cleaner energy but also a pivotal moment that could reshape the oil market's dynamics in Europe and beyond.

Shipping Rates Surge as Rebels Open Second Front in Iran War

The escalation of conflict in Iran, particularly with the Houthis threatening to open a second front, has sent shockwaves through oil markets, driving prices and shipping rates sharply higher. This geopolitical instability is a critical factor for energy investors, as it raises the specter of supply disruptions from one of the world's key oil-producing regions. With U.S. military actions intensifying, the risk of broader regional conflict becomes more pronounced, which could lead to significant interruptions in oil exports, particularly through vital chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. The immediate market reaction reflects a heightened risk premium, as traders price in the potential for supply shortages and increased shipping costs. Furthermore, this situation complicates OPEC's ability to manage production levels, as member states may face conflicting interests amid rising prices and the need for stability. The surge in oil prices could also have downstream effects, pushing up fuel costs globally and exacerbating inflationary pressures in economies already grappling with high energy prices. In the longer term, sustained conflict could lead to a reevaluation of energy strategies, pushing countries to seek alternative supplies or accelerate the transition to renewables. Investors should remain vigilant, as the interplay between military actions and oil supply dynamics could create volatility that extends beyond immediate price spikes. Overall, the situation underscores the fragility of oil markets in the face of geopolitical tensions and the critical need for energy security in an increasingly uncertain world.

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Interesting Company News Today

Horizon Petroleum Commences Field Well Production Testing Operations at Lachowice in Poland and Closes Oversubscribed Convertible Debenture Financing

(TSXV: HPL) Horizon Petroleum Ltd. announced that its wholly owned Polish subsidiary, Energia Karpaty Zachodnie sp. z o.o. ("EKZ"), has executed a drilling and services contract with Exalo Drilling S.A. for the re-entry, recompletion, stimulation and production flow testing of the Lachowice-7 ("L7") well located within the Company's 100%-owned Bielsko-Biała concession in southern Poland. Exalo has confirmed that rig mobilization is scheduled to commence on July 27, 2026, with field operations expected to begin on or about August 1, 2026. The Company has recognized, NI 51-101 compliant, 2P reserves of 34 BCF and an additional 163 BCF of Risked, 2C, Contingent Resources at Lachowice, with over 1.2 TCF of Gas in Place. Horizon closed an oversubscribed, secured, convertible debenture units offering at a price of $1,000 per unit, for aggregate gross proceeds of $681,000, issuing 681 Units. The convertible debentures bear interest at 7% per annum until 36 months following the closing date of July 23, 2026, with interest paid semi-annually in arrears in cash or in shares at the Company's option. The company intends to use the proceeds from the offering to complete the workover and production testing of the Lachowice 7 gas well, pay work program obligations in the Cieszyn concession and provide working capital for general corporate purposes in Poland and in Canada. The company projects that stimulation and production testing are expected to commence near the end of August and continue into early September 2026, targeting initial cashflow in early Q3 2027.

DiagnaMed Advances Next Phase of Canadian Natural Hydrogen Exploration With QIMC Across Its Ontario and Nova Scotia Projects

(CSE: DMED) (OTCQB: DGNMF) DiagnaMed Holdings Corp. announced the extension of its strategic technical advisory agreement with Quebec Innovative Materials Corp. ("QIMC") to accelerate advancement of its Canadian natural hydrogen portfolio. QIMC will continue advancing DiagnaMed's Temiskaming Natural Hydrogen Project in Ontario and initiate the first systematic soil gas exploration program on the newly acquired Colchester East Natural Hydrogen Project in eastern Nova Scotia. Previous exploration in Ontario identified hydrogen concentrations exceeding 2,000 ppm and expanded the hydrogen-bearing corridor to more than 11 kilometres within the Temiskaming Project. The Colchester East project comprises 30 exploration licences totaling 2,104 mineral claims within Nova Scotia's Cumberland Basin. QIMC's advisory services include exploration planning, field program supervision, soil gas sampling, geoscientific interpretation, and structural analysis. The company expects completion of the Ontario infill soil gas sampling program, the inaugural Colchester East soil gas survey, laboratory analysis of all soil gas samples, integrated geological, structural and geochemical interpretation, and delineation of priority drill targets over the coming months. DiagnaMed is advancing a portfolio of prospective clean natural hydrogen projects in Ontario and Nova Scotia, Canada.

Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas: Audited Results for the Year Ended 31 March 2026

(TSXV: EOG AIM: ECO) Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. announced its audited results for the year ended 31 March 2026, reporting cash and cash equivalents of US$10.7 million and no debt as at 31 March 2026. The company had total assets of US$30.7 million, total liabilities of US$12.9 million, and total equity of US$17.8 million as at 31 March 2026. On 29 January 2026, Eco completed a direct equity subscription raising US$10 million, net (£7.4 million), through the issue of 26,909,091 new Common Shares and warrants. In Namibia, Eco signed an agreement to farm down 60% participating interest in PEL97, PEL99, and PEL100 to BP Namibia Energy Ltd for a one-time cash consideration of US$2.7 million, with BP carrying 100% of Eco's 25% Retained PI and associated partner carries. The company also signed binding agreements with Navitas Petroleum LP for options and farm-downs in Guyana and South Africa, including a US$2.0 million payment for exclusive options and a US$4.0 million cash payment for Block 1 CBK. The company projects completion of the Sharon Farm-Out in Namibia shortly and expects to complete its acquisition of JHI Associates Inc. soon. Management targets transitioning to semi-annual financial reporting and expects not to file interim financial statements for the three-month period ending June 30, 2026.

Karoon Energy Completes Baúna Overhaul and Strengthens Cash Flow Outlook

(ASX: KAR) Karoon Energy produced 1.08 million barrels of oil equivalent during 2Q26, generating sales revenue of US$116.4 million as higher realised oil prices helped offset planned operational downtime. Baúna produced 0.84 million barrels during 2Q26 at an average 9,202bopd, down from 1.56 million barrels and 17,350bopd in the previous quarter due to a planned 28-day shutdown and the temporary SPS-92 shut-in. The FPSO operating efficiency reached 97%, exceeding Karoon’s 90% to 95% target range, and all project wells are now online. The Who Dat well produced 0.24 million barrels of oil equivalent on a net revenue interest basis during 2Q26, down from 0.38 million barrels in the previous quarter, with the A1 sidetrack entering production on 13 July at about 1,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Total 2Q26 capital expenditure reached US$126.6m, including US$37.2m for the Baúna revitalisation, US$56.6m for the SPS-92 intervention, and US$34m for the Who Dat A1 sidetrack. Karoon ended June with US$80.3m in cash, US$350m of drawn debt, and US$363.6m in total liquidity after investing about 85% of its full-year capital budget during the first half. The company projects higher free cash flow in the second half of 2026 as production rises and capital expenditure falls, subject to oil prices, operating performance and other operating risks.

Obsidian Energy Announces Closing of $75 Million Add-On to Our Senior Unsecured Notes

(TSX: OBE) Obsidian Energy Ltd. announced the successful closing of a private placement offering of $75.0 million aggregate principal amount to its existing 8.125% senior unsecured notes due December 3, 2030, issued on December 3, 2025. The additional notes were issued at a price of 102.75% of their face value, resulting in an effective yield of 7.186% and gross proceeds of $77.9 million. Upon closing, the aggregate principal amount of the notes outstanding increased from $175.0 million to $250.0 million. The net proceeds will be used to pay down indebtedness under the syndicated credit facility, fund general corporate expenses, and pay related transaction expenses. BMO Capital Markets and RBC Capital Markets acted as bookrunners, while Raymond James Ltd. acted as co-manager for the offering. The notes are not qualified for distribution to the public or registered under the securities laws of any province or territory of Canada or in the United States. Obsidian Energy is an intermediate-sized oil and gas producer with assets primarily in Alberta.

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Cadiz and RIC Energy Sign MOU to Advance Solar / Hydrogen Development at Cadiz Ranch

(NASDAQ: CDZI) Cadiz, Inc. and RIC Energy announced they have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU") to develop on-site solar facilities to accelerate the transition of Cadiz's agricultural operations to clean, renewable energy. The MOU establishes a framework to evaluate the feasibility of siting, permitting and constructing dedicated hydrogen transportation infrastructure, including hydrogen pipelines and other transport solutions, utilizing Cadiz's existing 220-mile Northern Pipeline corridor. The collaboration expands a strategic partnership launched in October 2024 to develop green hydrogen production at Cadiz Ranch by adding on-site solar generation as the first phase of an integrated renewable energy platform. Cadiz owns approximately 45,000 acres of land and 220 miles of pipeline assets in California's Mojave Desert. The Mojave Groundwater Bank is described as one of the largest new water supply and groundwater storage projects in the Lower Colorado River Basin. Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management approved a new right-of-way grant for Cadiz's 220-mile Northern Pipeline, allowing conversion from natural gas service to water conveyance. The company projects that the infrastructure planning effort is intended to preserve practical, cost-effective pathways for future hydrogen transportation while supporting development of regional water and energy infrastructure projects throughout San Bernardino County.

Volt Carbon, Solid Ultrabattery and TensorOne Enter Strategic Collaboration to Advance Next-Generation Autonomous Aircraft Technologies

(TSXV: VCT) (OTCQB: TORVF) Volt Carbon Technologies Inc. together with its wholly owned subsidiary Solid Ultrabattery Inc. and TensorOne Inc. announced the execution of a three-party Memorandum of Understanding ("MOU"), effective July 21, 2026, to evaluate and develop advanced battery and carbon technologies for next-generation autonomous Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and AI-enabled counter-UAS platforms. The collaboration brings together expertise in advanced lithium metal batteries, graphene-enhanced carbon composite materials, and autonomous aircraft systems. Under the MOU, the parties intend to evaluate the integration of Solid UltraBattery's lithium metal battery technology with Volt Carbon's advanced graphene and carbon materials on TensorOne's autonomous UAS platforms. The collaboration will include engineering validation, laboratory and flight testing, manufacturing evaluations, and the pursuit of future commercialization opportunities. Volt Carbon holds mineral interests in Quebec and British Columbia, Canada, and operates facilities supporting both carbon material processing and battery technology development. Solid Ultrabattery and TensorOne are both members of the Waterloo Dual-Use Technology Consortium. The company projects that these technologies are intended to improve payload capacity, mission duration, maneuverability, energy efficiency, and overall aircraft capability while supporting the commercialization of next-generation autonomous aircraft technologies.

PG&E Corporation Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results; on Track to Deliver Solid 2026

(NYSE: PCG) PG&E Corporation reported GAAP earnings of $0.33 and $0.72 per share for the second quarter and first six months of 2026, respectively, compared to $0.24 and $0.51 per share for the same periods in 2025. Non-GAAP core earnings were $0.40 and $0.83 per share for the second quarter and first six months of 2026, compared to $0.31 and $0.64 per share for the same periods in 2025. The company reaffirmed its full year 2026 non-GAAP core EPS guidance at $1.64 to $1.66 per share. PG&E completed a $2.2 billion Utility bond issuance in June, bringing total Utility debt financings to $4.4 billion for the year. Operationally, PG&E constructed 37 miles of underground powerlines and installed 100 miles of strengthened poles and covered powerlines in high fire-risk areas. The company reported a 60% reduction in methane emissions from its natural gas system in 2025 compared to a 2015 baseline, exceeding its 2030 target five years early. PG&E plans to complete more than 1,900 total miles of undergrounding and more than 2,000 miles of strengthened poles and covered powerlines by the end of 2027.

Manhattan Uranium Identifies High-Grade Uranium Intercepts From 5,668-Hole Database Compilation at I-70, San Rafael District, Utah

(TSXV: MANU) Manhattan Uranium Discovery Corp. has completed a major historical data compilation and digitization effort focused on building a modern drillhole and geological database for the I-70 Project in the San Rafael uranium district of Utah. The company has consolidated approximately 5,668 historical drill collar locations from legacy project maps into a modern validated drillhole database, including 4,550 historical gamma-equivalent uranium intervals across 2,769 drill holes. Of these 2,769 drill holes, approximately 1,985 holes, or 72%, contain at least one historical gamma-equivalent interval of 0.10% eU₃O₈ or greater. High-grade historical intercepts have been identified, such as GR-896-80 returning 1.22 m at 1.59% eU₃O₈ and FC-20-67 returning 2.13 m at 0.86% eU₃O₈. An initial lithology model for the Salt Wash Member of the Morrison Formation has been integrated with the drillhole database and digitized underground workings to generate preliminary 3D uranium target domains. The company is now defining priority targets for the upcoming field season, focused on areas where historical data indicates continuity of mineralized horizons and potential for unmined extensions.

Stallion Uranium Identifies Multiple New High-Priority Uranium Drill Targets at Coyote From Integrated Geophysics

(TSX-V: STUD) Stallion Uranium Corp. announced the successful completion of an expanded ground gravity survey at its flagship Coyote target. The survey delineated multiple new high-priority uranium drill targets and significantly extended the prospective strike length of the Coyote exploration corridor within the Moonlite Project, part of the southwestern Athabasca Basin Joint Venture with Atha Energy Corp. Five integrated target areas (A-E) have now been defined across the Coyote corridor, where gravity lows coincide with interpreted structures and conductive corridors. The expanded gravity program was completed in two phases and significantly increased coverage across the interpreted Coyote conductive corridor. Convolutions Geoscience carried out a 3D inversion of the gravity data using 40m x 40m surface XY blocks and Z blocks of 10m at the surface, increasing by 5% at depth, with the total model block depth exceeding 10km. The company, with JV partner Atha Energy, holds the largest contiguous project in the Western Athabasca Basin, exploring roughly 1,700 sq/km. The company projects that the newly identified gravity targets will be incorporated into upcoming drill planning and will form the foundation of future drill campaigns.

Metatek Signs New Contract With Global Energy Company for North African Survey

(TSX: MTEK) Metatek-Group Ltd. announced that it has signed a new contract with a global energy company to undertake an airborne gravity survey in North Africa. The multidisciplinary airborne acquisition, processing and interpretation project will utilize a conventional gravity and magnetic system. Operations are expected to commence in the fourth quarter of 2026. The contract is incremental to the Company's planned operating schedule for the second half of 2026 and is expected to generate additional revenue alongside the continued deployment of Metatek's primary systems. Processing and interpretation deliverables are to follow the start of in-country operations. The survey will use conventional gravity and magnetic systems rather than Metatek's exclusive eFTG and dFTG technologies. Metatek provides high-definition mapping of subsurface strategic and critical mineral natural resources, energy (including hydrocarbons), helium and hydrogen, for exploration and development.

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